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Why the Lakers may “Run it Back” in 2024

By Jacob Romanoon

Despite the record-breaking heat wave in Los Angeles, the Lakers have been ice-cold in free agency. The Lakers have yet to make an outside signing as we wrap up the first week of the NBA free agency period. 

Their only two moves have been the re-signings of Max Christie to a four-year $32 million deal and LeBron James to a two-year $101 million contract. These deals were both expected, and James’ pay cut paved the way to stay under the second apron.

While the Lakers still have time to make some noise, their inaction is noteworthy. Many fans and media spent the past few months theorizing about potential blockbuster trades and signings that would bolster the roster. 

Swing and a miss

Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office have swung and missed key free agent/trade opportunities for players such as Dejounte Murray, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, and more. 

The team has reportedly been unwilling to trade future first-round picks for solid contributors such as Jerami Grant, Cam Johnson, or Bruce Brown. 

In fairness to the front office, it is debatable if those players are/were worth the price to acquire them. For example, the Trail Blazers’ rumored asking price of two first-round picks + players for Grant is, by most accounts, an overpay.

However, LeBron is in the final years of his career, and Anthony Davis is now on the wrong side of 30. If there was ever a time to go “all-in” and overpay to help win a championship, it’s now… right? 

Despite this, the Lakers appear to be in no rush to go all-in, which may have been their strategy all along. Perhaps this week is a sign that they like their current roster and do not believe they need to mortgage additional assets to improve it. 

While this would be hard to justify to most of the fanbase, it is important to take a step back and attempt to understand the team’s vision in this scenario.

Here are five reasons why the Lakers may decide to “run it back” with most of the same players in 2024.

A new head coach

This may seem like a stretch, as the Lakers’ new head coach, JJ Redick, is a first-timer at the position with no NBA or NCAA coaching experience. Redick fits the profile of a coach who may struggle early on in his career, so why should the Lakers expect immediate improvement? 

The answer is simple: Darvin Ham. 

Between his lack of adjustments, questionable game management, and reluctance to change his lineups and rotations (looking at you, Taurean Prince), it is reasonable to say that Ham was a huge reason why LA failed to live up to expectations last season.

While the in-game struggles caused many setbacks for the LakeShow, Ham’s rotations were the most frustrating. 

Cam Reddish and Prince had more minutes in many games than Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Additionally, Max Christie was barely utilized last season.

Making timely adjustments

According to Jovan Buha, the Lakers were on a 55-win pace when Hachimura was in the starting lineup. While this change was evident to many, it took several months and key injuries for Ham to finally make the switch. 

On the contrary, Redick earned the job because of his strong basketball mind. 

As The Athletic indicates, The Lakers’ front office was reportedly impressed by his offensive and defensive philosophies and how “the analysis and empirical evidence would always guide his choices rather than preconceived notions or outdated beliefs.” 

While Redick is bound to struggle at times this season, his overall ideology is a huge step in the right direction for the Purple and Gold. He will very clearly look at the evidence in the numbers, which should lead to improved starting lineups and more balanced minutes within his rotations. 

Furthermore, it may be tough for Redick to establish his new culture immediately as a first-time head coach. 

Keeping the continuity of the 2023 roster in Redick’s first year will make that aspect of his job much easier, as the starting lineup already has chemistry from the previous two seasons.

Max Christie, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent 

From the Lakers’ perspective, Max Christie, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent may be considered “free agent additions” to the team this offseason, as none of them were on the court consistently in 2023. 

Christie averaged roughly 14 minutes per game in 2023 but was never consistently utilized by Ham. Buha said this played a part in Ham’s firing, as there was a disconnect between the front office and coaching staff regarding Christie’s role.

The Lakers value Christie’s 3-and-D upside, as his extension signals that they plan on using him a lot more in 2024. 

This is perhaps why the Lakers stayed away from team-friendly trade opportunities at guard for players such as Buddy Hield and Quentin Grimes, as they want to give Christie an opportunity to earn extra minutes and develop. 

Conversely, Vanderbilt and Vincent dealt with injuries throughout the season. Vanderbilt appeared in only 29 games, and Vincent appeared in just 11. Both players were expected to be key pieces of the rotation. 

Vanderbilt’s defensive versatility perfectly compliments the rest of the starting lineup, as Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura have been known to struggle on defense. He has the size, athleticism, and length to guard players on the perimeter and disrupt in the paint. 

Meanwhile, Vincent had just earned a three-year $33 million contract from the Lakers last offseason after a strong season in Miami. 

He figured to be an engaging POA defender with spot-up shooting ability, but he could never gain any momentum due to his injuries. If Vincent can stay healthy this upcoming season, he has the potential to round out the Lakers’ skillsets in their backcourt.

Life after LeBron

Given the likelihood that LeBron only has two more years with the Purple and Gold, the Lakers have likely begun planning for the franchise’s next chapter. 

The future looks somewhat bleak post-LeBron, as the lack of assets from the Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook trades has prevented LA from filling out the rest of their roster with young talent.

Furthermore, moving forward, the new CBA does come with altered salary cap restrictions, meaning it will be tougher to fill out the roster with free agents like the Lakers have previously done. 

Developing home-grown talent will be crucial from now on, as that provides the Lakers with more cost-controlled options to surround Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves once LeBron retires. 

Given this, the Lakers would be smart to prioritize their future first-round picks. It is hard to predict what the team will look like three-plus years into the future, and those picks could potentially become lottery selections.

Too steep a price?

As exciting as it would have been to acquire a player like Dejounte Murray, Rob Pelinka would have to give up multiple first-round picks in 2027 and beyond, as well as a player like Russell or Hachimura. 

Additionally, the rumored asking price for other trade targets such as Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Bruce Brown is at least a first-round pick. 

Pelinka has gone on record saying he would be willing to trade draft picks for the “right deal.” Lakers fans may have to accept that the team doesn’t view any of these players as the right deal, as they would only move the needle so much. 

Trading the team’s already limited assets to become marginally better is something that a sure-fire championship team should do. Although the Lakers are still a talented roster with two superstars, they are far from guaranteed to make it far in the 2024 playoffs.

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