Here’s Why Vegas is Dead Wrong on the Lakers

The NBA season is right around the corner now, with a Purple and Gold preseason game just a month away. This means fans are roughly a month away from being able to bet on their favorite teams, props, and futures. One very intriguing future bet this season from Vegas is the Lakers’ O/U on win total.

Vegas has set the Lakers win total at 45.5 which is 7.5 games BELOW the 53 they won last season…

The Lakers went 30-11 (!!) last season when Luka and AR shared the floor, which is a 60-win pace.

Do you think they’ll win more than 45 games? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/biUY2Hwf21

— Lakers All Day Everyday (@LADEig) August 17, 2026

Currently, depending on the sports book, Vegas has the Lakers’ win total set at either 45.5 or 46.5. This shocked many people for several reasons, including ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, who had this to say regarding LA’s projection:

” What an insult by DraftKings,” Windhorst said on ESPN’s “The Hoop Collective.” “[The Lakers are] a team that’s finished in the top three in the West the last two years. [They] dropped them down to 45.5 over/under.”

Let’s talk about the few reasons why this win total isn’t just an insult; it’s plain silly.

Why is the Total so Low?

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone through quite a renovation as a team this offseason. Not only were they sold yet again, but they lost basically their entire team. LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard, and Jaxson Hayes all left this offseason.

To Vegas’ credit, losing that many players (one of which being LeBron James) would be a death wish for a team and may even be a signal of a rebuild. If you look back, those are all the players who won a First Round series against Houston.

Luckily for Lakers fans, this is far from being the case.

This is the Luka Show Now

Yes, the loss of a player like LeBron James has historically not been kind to the respective teams the following season. This Lakers team, however, is vastly different from the 2010-2011 Cavaliers and the 2014-2015 Heat.

LeBron James was the engine, heart, leader, whatever you’d like to call him, of those teams. That was not the case last season with the Lakers. In case you’ve been living under a rock, there is a new sheriff in Los Angeles named Luka Doncic.

Luka Dončić’s teams have finished with 50+ wins in four of the last six seasons. He’s a top-five player in the NBA, and with his talent alone, the floor feels like 50 wins for Dončić.

A Revamped Lakers Squad

The good thing for the Lakers is that it’s not just Luka Dončić going to war this season. He’ll return with arguably his favorite all-time running mate, Austin Reaves, alongside him. As the tweet at the beginning of the article alluded to, when Dončić and Reaves shared the floor, the Lakers’ record was 30-11 en route to being the highest scoring duo in the league (56.8 PPG).

Not only does he have his running mate back, but this year’s Lakers team seems to be even better suited for Dončić to dominate.

The most important acquisition of the offseason came in the form of Walker Kessler, who’s set to slot in perfectly next to Dončić and Reaves.

According to CraftedNBA, Kessler is in the 99th percentile in TS%, 92nd in ORB, and 98th in BLK%. He can follow up on any missed shots by Dončić and Reaves to create extra possessions while also covering up their defensive shortcomings on the other end.

Kessler is also one of the league’s most effective rolling bigs. He uses his size not only to set effective screens, but to finish at the rim as well. Halfcourt sets next to Dončić will be nightmarish for opposing defenses.

Besides Kessler, the Lakers filled out the rest of the roster with far fewer one-dimensional players than they’ve had the past few years. The roster is now riddled with two-way guards and wings like Quintin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Zaire Williams, and Mattise Thybulle, among others. This is a team built for Luka.

Team Chemistry Seemingly Top Tier

This Lakers team seems like they may have the best chemistry and togetherness we’ve seen from a Purple and Gold roster since 2020.

The team already spent a portion of time doing some team bonding in Luka’s home country of Slovenia. They’ll not only be locked in as a unit, but the mentality of the players they brought in is going to be top-tier.

The Lakers recently lost out on Jonathan Kuminga, and he had some interesting comments following him choosing Minnesota. Kuminga said, “There’s a level of expectation and outside noise surrounding the Lakers that can become distracting-“. Clearly not cut out for the bright lights.

On the flipside, we have new forward Zaire Williams saying this:

“I just thought it was a great opportunity, being that big wing, versatile player that they needed, I just thought it was a great opportunity for me to be a Laker. I just thought it was the best fit. And then just being back home in L.A. is the cherry on top. I’m super excited.”

This Lakers team is filled with zero ego and two-way players that are ready to embrace the bright lights of being a Laker next to Luka Dončić.

Obviously, for any of these points to matter, the team is going to need to stay healthy, but if you don’t think this team, with good health, is going to win more than 45-46 games, I fear you may not know ball.